The 2026 crypto market “major divergence”: BTC bear market, but BlackRock, Franklin, and JPMorgan are all doing the same thing

Franklin’s $1.5 trillion asset management CIO said “prices are decoupled from fundamentals.” In the same week, BlackRock joined the UK’s 54-institutional tokenization alliance, Robinhood broke into the top five DEXs, Hyundai settled cross-border trade with USDT, and Bolivia prepared to integrate USDT into the national payment system. While BTC struggles at $62K, infrastructure is experiencing a quiet bull market. The question isn’t “Will BTC keep falling?” — but “When infrastructure is finished, who owns the toll stations?” “

1. Seven signals occur in the same week

In the second week of July 2026, the crypto market simultaneously received seven seemingly unrelated but actually pointing in the same direction:

1. Franklin Templeton CIO: Price “Decoupling” from Fundamentals

On July 13, Franklin Templeton crypto CIO Seth Ginns made it clear in a CoinDesk interview: “There’s a big disconnect between where prices are and real fundamentals.” (“There is a huge disconnect between current prices and actual fundamentals. ”）

This is not a crypto KOL shouting orders. Franklin Templeton manages $1.5 trillion in assets, while Ginns directly manages Franklin Crypto’s portfolio. When he chose to speak publicly at the moment of BTC $62K and market panic, Ginns chose to speak out at that moment—the timing of this statement is worth noting. As for changes in Franklin’s positions, the Q3 13F disclosure will provide an answer.

He mentioned several key signals: – Robinhood’s blockchain plans demonstrate that traditional financial distribution is migrating to the crypto track – Tokenized money market funds allow investors to earn yields on-chain – DeFi protocols’ revenue-driven token buyback models are attracting fundamental investors to tokenomics

2. UK Government Tokenization Alliance: BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase all joined the fray

On the same day, the UK Treasury-backed Tokenization Taskforce officially announced its list of 54 members. This is not a proof-of-concept sandbox—it comes with a 2-year roadmap: putting REPO (repurchase agreement), gilts (UK government bonds), and funds on-chain. The report also lists Ripple as a “fusion model,” aiming to generate an annual output value of £44 billion by 2035.

The list includes the world’s largest asset management institutions, top investment banks, and core operators of the UK’s financial infrastructure. When BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley all appear on a government tokenization roadmap, it’s no longer a “crypto narrative”—it’s an upgrade plan for traditional financial infrastructure.

3. Robinhood Chain: Born for stock tokenization, dominated by meme coins

Robinhood’s blockchain has surged into the top five in DEX trading volume rankings for less than two weeks (Bernstein confirmation), with TVL surpassing $135 million and attracting 800,000 addresses. While meme coins rather than tokenized stocks are currently active, the infrastructure is already there—Robinhood’s user base of 23 million is unmatched by any crypto-native DEX.

4. Hyundai uses USDT for real trade settlement

South Korea’s Hyundai Motor Company has completed a pilot for treasury settlement of USDT stablecoins in US-Mexico cross-border trade. This is not a POC statement—it’s global manufacturing giants replacing traditional cross-border banking channels with stablecoins.

Hyundai’s annual revenue exceeds $200 billion. If this pilot expands to its global supply chain, it will transform the infrastructure landscape of global trade settlement.

5. Bolivia considers including USDT in the national payment system

Facing a shortage of US dollars, the Central Bank of Bolivia is considering officially integrating Tether’s USDT into the national payment system. Annual trading volume has reached $430 million. This is a typical case of developing countries replacing dollar liquidity with stablecoins—continuing El Salvador’s national cryptocurrency path, but more directly on a practical level.

6. BTC ETFs end 8 consecutive weeks of outflows

After eight weeks of continuous outflows, BTC ETFs recorded a net inflow of $197 million last week. This is not a small number—it comes against the backdrop of BTC testing $62K, escalating military conflict in the Middle East, and the return of Fed rate hike expectations. Funds have chosen crypto exposure in a “risk-off” environment.

7. SBI fully shifts to Solana + yen stablecoins

Japanese financial giant SBI Holdings has pivoted its entire blockchain strategy to Solana, including tokenization issuance and a yen stablecoin program, and has partnered with Lawson convenience stores to pilot retail payments. This marks the “first shot” for Asian institutions to deploy stablecoins in real-world payment scenarios.

2. The Essence of the Great Divergence: “Price Narrative” Can’t Outperform “Infrastructure Narrative”

Over the past decade, the core narrative of the crypto market has always been “price”: when to rise, how much, and when to sell. This narrative framework makes BTC price volatility a proxy variable for the industry’s “confidence index.”

But fundamental changes are happening in 2026: infrastructure construction no longer depends on BTC prices.

• When Franklin Templeton launched the tokenized fund, he did not wait for BTC to return to $100K
• When BlackRock joined the UK Tokenization Taskforce, it did not wait for market sentiment to improve
• When Hyundai tested cross-border USDT settlement, it did not wait for the SEC to clarify its regulatory framework
• When SBI deployed Solana tokenization, it did not wait for the pressure of yen depreciation to ease

The decision clock for these actions is a 5-10 year of market structure changes, not a 3-6 month BTC price cycle. This is the core of the “Great Divergence”: the frequency of decisions for the infrastructure leading indicator and the frequency of fluctuations in the price lagging indicator are not on the same time dimension.

In the words of CIO Franklin: the current depth of institutional engagement is “years strongest.” But prices do not reflect this—because prices are still driven by retail sentiment and macro liquidity, while infrastructure is driven by institutional strategies and regulatory roadmaps.

3. This is not a “valuation fix” story for cryptocurrencies

A common market interpretation is: “The fundamentals are strong, and prices will eventually catch up.” “This is an oversimplified and dangerous conclusion.

What truly matters is not “whether the price will be repaired,” but “who will charge for the use of this infrastructure when it is completed?” “

The characteristics of the current round of infrastructure development:

1. From “decentralization” to “traditional infrastructure upgrades”: UK Taskforce’s goal is not to create new DeFi protocols, but to have repo, gilts, and funds run on the blockchain. This means blockchain is becoming the “second-layer operating system” of financial infrastructure, rather than an alternative.
2. Permissionless chains and public chains coexist: A tokenization alliance of 54 institutions cannot operate on permissionless public chains. A more likely scenario is: permissioned chains handle compliance clearing, while public chains handle circulation and programmability. This means the middle layer of infrastructure—compliance bridging, custody, KYC/AML—becomes a key checkpoint.
3. Sovereign states and real economy companies are entering the field faster than expected: Bolivia’s national payment system, Hyundai’s trade settlement, SBI’s retail payments—these are not the stories of “crypto natives.” They stem from the real-world demand for more efficient financial channels, and crypto happens to provide the technical solution.
4. Stablecoins have evolved from “trading tools” to “real economy pipelines”: Hyundai’s cross-border settlements are not speculating with USDT, but rather replacing SWIFT. Bolivia is not using USDT for DeFi, but rather replacing US dollar cash. This fundamentally changes the stablecoin’s TAM (addressable market).

4. History will not repeat itself, but it will rhyme: three “price-infrastructure divergence” outcomes

If the “Great Divergence” of 2026 feels unfamiliar, history has its echoes. In the past 25 years, there have been at least three cycles highly similar to the current one—each time, price crashes masked the accelerated construction of infrastructure. And every time infrastructure triumphs come 12-24 months after prices bottom out.

📉 Cycle One: 2000-2002 Internet Bubble → The Birth of AWS

What happened: The Nasdaq fell from 5,048 points to 1,114 points, a 78% decline. Pets.com and Webvan went bankrupt. But during the same period, Amazon’s stock price fell from $107 to $7 (a 93% drop), and Jeff Bezos didn’t stop investing—he was secretly developing an internal project called “Amazon Web Services.” Google launched AdWords in 2002, laying the foundation for search advertising.

Divergence between infrastructure and price: Fiber broadband deployment reached a historic peak between 2001 and 2003 (during the bubble period, Global Crossing laid 100,000 miles of fiber, which was purchased at 10% of the cost after bankruptcy). Server infrastructure, e-commerce logistics networks, search engine algorithms—all these “Web 2.0” infrastructures were built during a stock market crash and no one was paying attention.

Outcome: AWS officially launched in 2006 and became Amazon’s largest source of profit ten years later. Google AdWords became the most profitable advertising product in human history. Fiber optic networks have become the transmission layer for YouTube, Netflix, and Zoom. Infrastructure built during the darkest period will become toll stations in the next cycle.

📉 Cycle 2: 2018-2019 Crypto Winter → DeFi Summer 2020

What happened: BTC fell from $19,783 to $3,122 (an 84% drop). The ICO bubble completely burst, and “blockchain” was declared dead in mainstream media. But at the same time—

• Uniswap released its first version (V1) at Devcon 4 in November 2018
• Compound completed its seed round and began building an on-chain lending protocol
• MakerDAO ‘s DAI stablecoin scaled in 2019
• Synthetix and Aave (then called ETHLend) completed core product iterations during this period

Infrastructure vs. Price divergence: When BTC bottomed near $3,000, DeFi’s total value locked (TVL) was less than $500 million—almost negligible. But the infrastructure for smart contracts (AMM models, lending pools, price oracles) was built during this “unnoticed” period.

Conclusion: In June 2020, Compound issued the COMP token and launched “liquidity mining.” DeFi Summer exploded—TVL soared from less than $1 billion to $15 billion (15 times), and the UNI airdrop ($1,200+ per person) became the most famous wealth distribution event in crypto history. Those who read the Uniswap whitepaper during the 2019 bear market became DeFi winners in 2020.

📉 Cycle 3: FTX collapse in 2022-2023 → BTC ETF approval

What happened: FTX collapsed in November 2022, and BTC dropped to $15,599. SBF was arrested, and BlockFi, Celsius, and Voyager went bankrupt one after another. The crypto industry is regarded by Wall Street and regulators as a “crime scene.”

But during the same period—— – BlackRock submitted a BTC spot ETF application on June 15, 2023— Fidelity, Invesco, VanEck, and ARK followed closely behind—accelerating the construction of crypto custody, compliant clearing, and market-making infrastructure for traditional financial institutions

Infrastructure vs. Price divergence: As retail investors cut their losses at $16,000, the world’s largest asset management institutions are preparing to establish a regulated, institution-open market access pipeline for crypto assets.

Outcome: In January 2024, the SEC approved 11 BTC spot ETFs. First-day trading volume was $4.6 billion. BTC rose from $25K to over $73K in 12 months. ETFs are not the end point of price—they are the starting point for prices to rediscover the value of infrastructure.

🔑 These three cycles tell us a common pattern

	Dot-Com 2000	Crypto 2018	Post-FTX 2022	As of 2026
Price decline	NASDAQ -78%	BTC -84%	BTC -77%	BTC is on the pullback from its ATH
What is infrastructure doing?	Fiber / AWS / Search	Uniswap/Compound/DAI	ETF pipeline / compliant liquidation	54 institutional tokenization alliances/stablecoin state payments
The “nobody’s attention” continued	~4 years	~18 months	~14 months	？
The timing of the infrastructure boom	2004-2006（Web 2.0）	Summer 2020 (DeFi)	Spring 2024 (ETF Bull Market)	To be determined
Who won	Building an AWS Amazon is not a Pets.com that sells dog food	Hayden, who built Uniswap, is not an ICO project that releases a white paper	BlackRock customers who bought ETFs are not FTX users	？

Core rule: Prices can drop by 80%, but if infrastructure construction hasn’t stopped, then after 12-24 months, infrastructure will prove its value through price.

The difference in 2026 is that this round of infrastructure builders is not crypto-native entrepreneurs (like Uniswap in 2018), but BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, JPMorgan, the UK government, and Hyundai. This means—

1. The probability of completing infrastructure is higher. The balance sheets and regulatory relationships of these institutions mean that tokenization alliances will not dissolve just because BTC falls to $50K.
2. But the beneficiaries of infrastructure may differ. In 2018, it was the crypto-native team that built Uniswap, and in 2020, it was DeFi users who made big money. The Tokenization Alliance will be built by the world’s largest financial institution in 2026—when infrastructure is completed, toll stations may no longer belong to the community.
3. The time window may be shortening. It took only 14 months from Post-FTX to ETF approval, much shorter than Dot-Com’s 4 years. If the UK Tokenization Taskforce’s two-year roadmap is real, we may see the first results in 2027-2028.

⚠️ Past cycle performance does not indicate future results. The current market structure, regulatory environment, and macroeconomic background differ significantly from the aforementioned cycles. The historical comparisons in this article are only for reference within the analytical framework and do not constitute any prediction or guarantee of future trends.

5. Separation of valuation logic between price and infrastructure

When BlackRock joined the tokenization alliance with $11.5 trillion AUM, when Hyundai traded real with stablecoins, when Bolivia’s sovereign government chose USDT over traditional banks—the crypto industry’s value narrative no longer relies solely on BTC price.

But this does not mean BTC prices have lost their importance. BTC remains the core anchor for liquidity across the entire industry. Logically, if BTC prices come under pressure, ETF outflows continue, and the macro environment further deteriorates (Fed rate hikes, oil prices push inflation), the pace of infrastructure construction may slow down, but it is not expected to stop because of this. This is the core meaning of the “Great Divergence”: price and infrastructure are two independent variables, and their coupling is weakening.

One more note: This article argues that “the valuation logic of infrastructure and price is separating,” rather than “infrastructure investment is superior to other strategies.” Infrastructure construction may also face uncertainties such as regulatory delays, technological risks, and lower-than-expected commercial adoption. All investment decisions should be independently evaluated by readers.

6. Observation Window: What to Watch in the Next 90 Days?

Time window	Signal	Why it matters
Late July	CLARITY Act Senate vote	A constitutional moment for the U.S. crypto regulatory framework
August	UK Taskforce’s first working meeting	Concrete roadmaps for 54 institutions
August	Fed Jackson Hole + September FOMC	Whether the rate hike cycle continues determines BTC’s downward pressure
September-October	Institutional Q3 Holdings Disclosure (13F)	Verify whether Franklin’s “strongest fundamentals” are reflected in holdings
Q3 continues	Hyundai USDT settlement pilot expansion	Manufacturing giants use stablecoins as a signal of true scale for trade

Sources

1. BlackRock Joins UK Tokenization Push to Deliver $44 Billion to the Economy — Yahoo Finance

2. Major U.S. Banks Join U.K. Government’s Tokenization Taskforce — Yahoo Finance 3. Global Industrial Conglomerate Hyundai Completes Enterprise Treasury Pilot on Tether USD₮ — Tether.io

4. Hyundai Completes First Live Stablecoin Remittance Using Tether And Avalanche — FinanceFeeds

5. US Bitcoin ETFs Break 8-Week Outflow Streak With $197 Million Inflow — FinanceFeeds

6. Franklin Crypto CIO says crypto prices are disconnected from fundamentals — CoinDesk

7. UK Treasury report on tokenization cites Ripple as convergence model — CoinDesk

8. Bolivia weighs adding Tether’s USDT to its national payments system — CoinDesk

9. Robinhood Chain surges into top five by DEX volume: Bernstein — CoinDesk

10. SBI Holdings’ blockchain initiative pivots to Solana for tokenization, stablecoin issuance — CoinDesk

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