As Leading Tech Companies Ride the IPO Wave, How Is Crypto Front-Running the First Pricing?
EX.IO Research
Abstract
Has Unitree’s valuation already been marked by crypto traders before its official listing?
From Web2 to Web3, the market’s recent focus has centered on Unitree Technology’s upcoming listing. The company’s STAR Market IPO was priced at approximately US$9 billion, while on the decentralized derivatives exchange Hyperliquid, the pre-IPO perpetual contract has driven its valuation to nearly US$38 billion — more than a 4× premium.
Meanwhile, other exchanges have quickly followed suit, simultaneously listing pre-IPO perpetuals for both Unitree and AI unicorn Moonshot AI. This signals a deeper structural shift: price discovery for private companies prior to listing is moving from investment bank book-building and private roadshows onto 24/7 traded crypto perpetual contracts. As the tech IPO wave (Unitree, Moonshot AI, and OpenAI, which according to FT reports is still advancing its IPO plans) collides with crypto exchanges’ derivatives expansion, the first bite of pricing power is being seized by the crypto market.
A Company Not Yet Listed Has Already Been “Pre-Priced” to 4×
First, the most dramatic set of numbers:
- Unitree completed its Shanghai STAR Market IPO pricing at RMB 150.80 per share (approximately US$22.37), valuing the company at about US$9 billion.
- At the same time, Hyperliquid’s Unitree pre-IPO perpetual contract traded in the US$92–94 range on Friday, corresponding to a valuation of approximately US$38 billion — more than 4 times the IPO price.
- According to Reuters, Unitree’s IPO was oversubscribed more than 8,000 times by retail investors (this reflects subscription heat, not a price forecast). Trading is expected to begin between August 17 and 21.
Where does this 4× premium come from? Data from Allium provides part of the answer: Unitree was founded in Hangzhou in 2016 and focuses on humanoid and quadruped robots. Last year, revenue reached US$253 million, up 335% year-over-year, with humanoid robot shipments exceeding 5,500 units. The market has directly translated the scarcity expectation of “China’s first robot stock” into elevated valuations in the derivatives market.
But the key is not “whether it is expensive,” but “who prices it first.” It should be noted: this 4× premium is a market quote from synthetic derivatives and does not equal the company’s true valuation; nor is it guaranteed to converge to this price after listing. These pre-IPO perpetuals do not grant any underlying equity and cannot be converted into shares — they are pure synthetic valuation markets: before the stock officially opens, they allow traders to use leverage to bet on a company’s eventual market capitalization, with prices subsequently converging toward the public share price.
Essence: The listing bell has not yet rung, yet the price has already been struck — and the ones striking the price are 24/7 crypto traders, not the investment bank’s book-building table.
Exchanges Race into Pre-IPO: From SpaceX to Unitree and Moonshot AI
Hyperliquid is not alone. On August 15, Bybit simultaneously listed pre-IPO perpetuals for Unitree and Moonshot AI, denominated and settled in USDT, allowing traders to gain price exposure without holding the underlying stock. Bybit’s “TradFi Perpetuals” product line, launched in April, has already expanded to more than 200 products, covering stocks, ETFs, commodities, indices, and pre-IPO companies.
This wave of “private market beachhead” actually began in June: before SpaceX’s listing, Binance, Coinbase, Kraken and other exchanges successively launched SpaceX-related contracts or tokenized exposure.
And the price discovery effect has already had two “previews”:
- In July, the pre-IPO contract tracking Chinese memory chip maker CXMT was only 2.5% away from the Shanghai opening price on the day of listing.
- In June, Hyperliquid traders correctly anticipated SpaceX’s first-day performance.
When predictions start to “hit,” exchanges have the incentive to put more private companies onto the derivatives shelf — because this is a new revenue channel migrating from spot trading fees toward “private market making + derivatives.”
Essence: What exchanges are eyeing is not any single company, but the “pre-listing price discovery” process itself — a link that originally belonged to investment banks and private placements.
Reversal and Risks: Not Every “Front-Running” Succeeds
There is an unavoidable counterexample in this narrative. SpaceX’s tokenized IPO activities did not go according to script: because Kraken’s xStocks failed to secure sufficient underlying shares, Binance, Bybit, and Bitget Wallet canceled their respective tokenized SpaceX IPO activities before listing and issued refunds.
This exposes the soft underbelly of the pre-IPO narrative: price discovery can be front-run by crypto rails, but “real delivery” remains constrained by the availability of the underlying assets (shares). Having the market but no stock ultimately ends in refunds. This is a common risk for all “synthetic exposure” products, and also a point of caution for Unitree’s current 4× valuation — Allium has already warned that once the stock opens and a reference price appears, leveraged positions will face sharp convergence and liquidation risks.
The Bigger Picture: Tokenized Stocks Are “Doubling”
The excitement around pre-IPO perps is occurring against a larger backdrop — tokenized stocks themselves are rapidly scaling. According to RWA.xyz data:
- Tokenized stock holders more than doubled over the past month (+123.62%), reaching 1.31 million.
- Monthly transfer volume surged nearly 180% over the same period, reaching US$23.13 billion.
- Total distributed value grew 5.9% to US$2.38 billion; Ondo (approx. US$872 million), Kraken xStocks (approx. US$558 million), and Binance bStocks (approx. US$522 million) lead the pack.
On one side are the “synthetic exposure” of pre-IPO perps; on the other are the “real holdings” of tokenized stocks — both rails are racing for the same thing: moving the pricing and liquidity of private companies and stocks onto the blockchain ahead of time.
The Migration of Pricing Power Is Structural, but Stuck at “Delivery”
Taking all factors into account, EX.IO Research offers the following judgments:
- “Trading before listing” is forming a trend (observational judgment, not a definitive prediction). The tech company IPO wave (Unitree, Moonshot AI, and OpenAI still advancing its IPO according to FT reports) provides exchanges with a continuous pool of underlyings; as long as the private company listing cadence continues, pre-IPO derivatives will keep expanding. The front-loading of price discovery is not a one-off event, but a structural migration.
- But “price discovery” and “ownership” are two different things. Pre-IPO perps are pure synthetic exposure and cannot be delivered into stock; tokenized stocks can provide real holdings but are constrained by the availability of underlying shares (the SpaceX refund lesson). Those who can truly capture both the “pricing” and “delivery” links are the infrastructures that can secure underlying securities and bring holdings and liquidity on-chain.
- Three observation lines worth watching:
- Unitree’s first-day convergence — between August 17–21, the process of Hyperliquid’s 4× valuation converging toward the real stock price is the most direct stress test of pre-IPO perps’ pricing ability;
- Exchanges’ product cadence — whether Binance, Coinbase and others will follow with more pre-IPO underlyings and turn “private market making” into a regular revenue item;
- Availability of underlying securities — the supply side of tokenized stocks (who can obtain and custody the underlying shares) is the key bottleneck for whether this rail can fully run.
FAQ
Q: What are pre-IPO perpetual contracts?
A: They are synthetic derivatives that allow traders to use leverage to bet on the post-listing market capitalization of a company that has not yet gone public, without holding the underlying stock. They do not grant equity and cannot be converted into shares; prices will converge as the public share price appears.
Q: Why is Unitree valued at 4× on Hyperliquid?
A: Unitree’s IPO was priced at approximately US$9 billion, while Hyperliquid’s pre-IPO perpetual pushed the valuation to about US$38 billion. The premium stems from scarcity expectations around “China’s first robot stock,” combined with the emotional spillover from the 8,000× retail oversubscription; however, this is a speculative valuation in a synthetic market and does not equal the actual post-listing share price.
Q: Why are crypto exchanges offering pre-IPO contracts for private companies?
A: Because this moves “pre-listing price discovery” — a process that originally belonged to investment bank book-building and private roadshows — onto 24/7 traded crypto rails. Exchanges can migrate revenue from spot trading fees toward “private market making + derivatives.”
Sources
1. CoinDesk — Robot maker Unitree is going public. Hyperliquid traders see 4x upside from IPO price: Link
2. Cointelegraph — Bybit adds Unitree, Moonshot AI to pre-IPO perpetuals lineup: Link
3. Cointelegraph — Tokenized stock holders more than double as monthly volume surges: Link
4. Reuters — Unitree’s Shanghai IPO more than 8000 times oversubscribed by retail investors: Link
5. FT — OpenAI upheaval mounts as Sam Altman readies IPO push: Link
6. Allium — Pricing the Unitree IPO before it opens: Link
Disclaimer
This content is provided solely for general market information and educational reference. It does not constitute investment advice, legal opinion, compliance advice, trading recommendation, solicitation, or endorsement. Digital asset prices are highly volatile; past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should not make trading, product, licensing, or other commercial decisions based solely on this content. For matters involving legal, compliance, tax, or investment judgment, please consult qualified professional advisers.
This content contains forward-looking statements that are subject to market and regulatory uncertainties; actual outcomes may differ from those described. It discusses synthetic derivatives and tokenized stocks — high-risk products. Regulatory frameworks differ significantly across jurisdictions (including Hong Kong, the United States, and Mainland China). The pre-IPO perpetual contracts described herein are synthetic exposures and do not constitute ownership or transfer of the underlying securities. Products mentioned may carry “market without underlying asset” delivery risk (see the SpaceX refund case in the main text). Third-party platforms referenced are not affiliated with EX.IO; their mention does not constitute endorsement or recommendation, and EX.IO does not offer related products.
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