EX.IO: Crypto Rebound Fuels RWA Demand — Tokenized Product Sales Up 200% YoY Last Month; Trading Volume Surges 800%

Global major assets have seen faster and deeper swings of late. Bitcoin and other leading crypto assets reclaiming the 80,000 level have drawn particular attention. With a U.S. FOMC meeting approaching, markets are focused on whether a potential rate hike next week could again pressure these assets in the near term — or even send them lower.

In fact, the forces driving these prices may be undergoing a more fundamental shift. Even as a surge in oil prices triggered a global bond sell-off and U.S. Treasury yields jumped to multi-year highs — putting risk assets under broad pressure — regulatory easing around tokenized securities and stablecoins, together with continued institutional capital inflows, means the medium- to long-term narrative for the mainstream crypto market, and especially for newer real-world assets (RWAs) such as Pre-IPO tokens, is not weakening. It is strengthening. 

At EX.IO, we observe that institutional attention is accelerating away from traditional assets toward the Pre-IPO and other next-generation RWA niches we have been building. That trend continues to expand and has not shown a clear reversal around a potential one-off September FOMC outcome. These dynamics have also accelerated sales of EX.IO’s tokenized products. Latest figures show that sales of related products rose as much as 200% year-on-year last month, powering the company’s growth flywheel and representing an important milestone for Hong Kong’s compliant digital asset industry.

On that foundation, and supported by a range of Web2 + Web3 innovations, the recognition and participation of widely used crypto assets such as Bitcoin and Ether have continued to rise. Our trading volume has been lifted accordingly: last month, EX.IO platform trading volume was up more than 800% year-on-year and more than 100% month-on-month, a further sign of growing platform recognition. Combining market feedback, we believe these assets’ role in the broader market is shifting from the traditional label of “high-volatility risk assets” toward a new asset class that also carries characteristics of an “alternative hedge.” Near-term prices may still swing meaningfully on multiple factors, but long-term value still has considerable upside and continues to attract diversified industry attention and trading.

From a longer vantage point, even if the Fed resumes hiking in September and the Clarity Act fails to clear the Senate, these short-term disturbances at most affect the pace and amplitude of the near-term price path for mainstream crypto assets. They will not reverse the underlying pricing logic or the direction of the paradigm shift. The question that truly matters is no longer whether a modest rebound in risk markets is merely a “last gasp,” but how long the market will take to reprice this paradigm shift. 

Before that, however, we should clarify the two key variables shaping short-term price action, so that longer-term potential changes can be better understood.

Near-term variable 1: Rate-hike expectations have risen sharply 

September has long been a “season of trouble” for global markets. With the mid-month FOMC approaching, and the latest nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly strong, expectations that the Fed will resume hiking have risen rapidly. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the implied probability of a 25 bp hike in September jumped from below 50% on 3 September to more than 62% within about a week, and recently briefly exceeded 70%.

Looking at recent market action, crypto has rebounded from lows, with Bitcoin briefly reclaiming the US$80,000 level. Stronger employment data, however, suggests that wage growth and demand-side inflation may not ease as quickly as hoped. The economy could again flirt with stagflation, tilting the Fed’s policy balance back toward a hawkish stance. History shows that rising hike expectations often come with concerns over tighter dollar liquidity, which tends to weigh on richly valued growth assets and high-volatility crypto. If September’s meeting delivers a hike — or a more hawkish tightening signal — the near-term rebound in crypto could indeed stall. Until the decision is in, there is still room for positioning: if the Fed stands pat, or hints that the tightening cycle is near its end, suppressed risk appetite could recover quickly. This FOMC will be the first key watershed for judging the market’s short-term path in the fourth quarter.

Near-term variable 2: The Clarity Act’s Senate path remains uncertain 

Almost in parallel with the FOMC is a major U.S. digital-asset regulatory milestone — the Clarity Act (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) heading for Senate consideration. The bill is widely seen as a key step from “regulation by enforcement” toward “regulation by framework.” Passage would clarify jurisdiction between the SEC and the CFTC and pave the way for compliant institutional capital.

Yet with Republicans short of votes, the odds of the bill clearing the Senate this round are limited. If it fails, the next window for reconsideration could recede: the midterm elections in November will squeeze the legislative calendar, and Democrats — more cautious on crypto — could regain control of at least one chamber. A change in the congressional map would make crypto-friendly legislation harder still.

Regulatory expectations and monetary policy are the two pillars of crypto asset valuation. When rising hike expectations and legislative setbacks stack together, a period of sideways consolidation — or even a pullback — could emerge and persist for some time in Q4. That is why investors need to manage positions with care in the near term.

Core evidence of the paradigm shift: the trust anchor is moving 

Short-term factors can move prices. Over the longer term, what the market should be thinking about is the deeper force driving this paradigm shift. Take Bitcoin. U.S. Treasury debt continues to expand, while related repurchase operations have fallen short of expectations, and doubts over sovereign-debt sustainability linger. Against a backdrop of rising credit risk, global capital’s trust anchor is undergoing a fundamental shift: from unconditional reliance on sovereign credit, toward hard assets that stand above any single sovereign — gold — and toward Bitcoin as “digital gold.”

Research from several major institutions has shown that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has been climbing, reaching a high not seen since 2020. At the same time, Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq and the U.S. dollar has fallen sharply, approaching zero. The implication is striking: Bitcoin’s asset character is moving away from being a “high-beta shadow of tech growth stocks” and back toward a “store of value that hedges credit risk.”

Geopolitical variables cannot be ignored either. Developments in the Middle East and U.S.–Iran relations can at any time disturb global energy prices and risk-off sentiment. If safe-haven flows continue to diversify from the dollar and Treasuries toward gold and Bitcoin, crypto markets may, amid the turbulence, still see structural inflows.

None of this is certain. Investors should not equate a shift in narrative with an immediate price payoff.

As Web2 and Web3 converge faster, the long-term value center of gravity can move higher

Beyond macro and regulatory factors, the industry’s own evolution is another important support for long-term value. As Web3 more actively embraces Web2 and traditional finance — including tokenized equities and Pre-IPO tokens that seek to influence IPO pricing — the RWA tokenization wave is redrawing the boundary between the two worlds at unprecedented speed. Institutional capital, compliance frameworks and the vast user bases of traditional finance are flowing onto chain through the bridge of tokenization.

In that process, Bitcoin, Ether and other mainstream coins — the core benchmarks and representative settlement instruments of Web3 — are not being diluted. Their strategic standing may instead rise with institutional adoption from mainstream finance. This structural force from the industry side has the potential to offset some of the negative macro and regulatory factors, helping mainstream coin prices stabilize and trend higher over a longer horizon — even if volatility remains the market’s default setting in the short and medium term.

The near term may be variable; the paradigm shift is the long-term constant

In sum, September’s crypto market stands at the intersection of several variables: the FOMC will set the tone for near-term liquidity expectations; the Senate fate of the Clarity Act will determine when a regulatory dawn arrives; and the November midterms may reshape the policy map for the next two years. These are disturbances that cannot be ignored in the short run.

But we must restate the point: the market’s cognitive paradigm for risk assets is undergoing a fundamental shift. What was once simply “risk” is gradually revealing a “hedge” dimension. The migration of the trust anchor, the return of the “digital gold” narrative, and institutional demand from faster Web3–Web2 integration are building a firmer long-term value base for mainstream crypto assets. Near-term volatility does not negate that long-term direction. Whether a modest rebound is a “last gasp” will not be answered by September’s ups and downs alone, but by whether the market can see the paradigm shift that is already underway.

In the near term, the market should stay prudent before key events land, control position size and enforce risk limits. At the same time, we should think more prospectively about how to capture the asset re-rating that is unfolding as the boundary between “risk” and “hedge” dissolves.

-the end-

Media Contact: Henry.yang@ex.io

About EX.IO

EX.IO (EXIO Limited) is a tightly regulated Virtual Asset Trading Platform (VATP), licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (SFC) since December 2024. As one of the first platforms to pass review under the “deemed licensed” regime within the regulatory framework of the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap. 571) and the Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorist Financing Ordinance (Cap. 615), EX.IO has established its position as a leading compliant exchange. It is also the only VATP admitted to Hong Kong’s Office for Attracting Strategic Enterprises (OASES).

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